What About Porn?

There’s a hoary old cliché that porn is a key driver of widespread adoption of new technologies. And though it’s a cliché, it’s become one because it is, at least in part, generally true.

Home video formats (VHS at first, and later DVD) and the Internet were grown and built with porn dollars. After all, just five or six years ago both the conventional wisdom and most businesses showed that the only content that you could make money from online was financial data (the Wall Street Journal used to charge a subscription to access its site!) and porn?

Though it hasn’t held true in all new technology markets (the iPod took off just fine without porn), there’s no doubt that the old triumvirate of porn, technology, and success still lurks in people’s minds.

So the question arises: What role will porn play in the wireless digital picture frame market?

My guess is not a very big one. Sure, as the market grows and gains traction in thousands or millions of homes, offices, and dorm rooms, entrepreneurs will see the dollar signs on the wall and launch porn offerings, likely in the form of subscription-only RSS feeds. But I doubt they’re going to succeed as broadly as the early 80s VHS porn visionaries.

It just seems unlikely that many people will be very interested in displaying porn on their walls or desks. Porn succeeds on the Internet because viewers are able to close their browsers, hiding it until they want to see it again. Few people are comfortable displaying porn at all times. You don’t see too many wall-size porn posters hung in homes or offices.

Sure, you’ll probably see them in the next few years in dorm rooms or frat houses. Hardcore photos may distract students from their studies or observe the beer drinking in the frat. But given the wide availability of free porn online and college students’ tendency to prefer free content online to paid (see Napster circa 1999-2001), this market doesn’t seem too large.

And just like the spam emails keep telling us all, (market) size does matter.